Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 18.552571 21.147751 23.942807 27.172963 30.799004 34.739651 39.342360
2025-01-12 14.439623 17.900044 21.914401 26.899684 32.907821 39.897430 48.626333
2025-01-19 11.726577 15.359436 19.782964 25.537430 32.794273 41.607861 53.085614
2025-01-26 10.511627 14.440074 19.427339 26.177954 35.025007 46.166674 61.194097
2025-02-02 9.607921 13.755869 19.215133 26.860934 37.215578 50.662882 69.344306
2025-02-09 8.573586 12.761275 18.462010 26.703415 38.208876 53.579311 75.518404
2025-02-16 7.643188 11.798347 17.635906 26.327603 38.807044 55.917745 80.953530
2025-02-23 6.999869 11.174701 17.212439 26.448124 40.051989 59.149299 87.724122
2025-03-02 6.493330 10.698360 16.947002 26.748639 41.532433 62.742746 95.139194
2025-03-09 5.988778 10.172532 16.554160 26.808722 42.629788 65.803050 101.895085
2025-03-16 5.465664 9.565779 15.981687 26.536296 43.181713 68.054871 107.529152
2025-03-23 5.109747 9.195951 15.743945 26.752879 44.470280 71.436831 114.977106
2025-03-30 4.904968 9.069554 15.898369 27.622745 46.862218 76.665269 125.582668
2025-04-06 4.496030 8.556731 15.379947 27.357792 47.420807 79.079962 131.946943
2025-04-13 3.932529 7.717083 14.242949 25.970223 46.041534 78.332955 133.233715
2025-04-20 3.769107 7.585548 14.307856 26.622060 48.071893 83.128818 143.606610
2025-04-27 3.624673 7.475141 14.397897 27.315196 50.197879 88.163333 154.574759
2025-05-04 3.364636 7.121159 14.023345 27.155387 50.834722 90.746938 161.586345
2025-05-11 3.097241 6.728236 13.546583 26.773682 51.049085 92.611782 167.449847
2025-05-18 2.919523 6.497754 13.354090 26.896095 52.157081 96.034292 176.089390
2025-05-25 2.778268 6.328825 13.264884 27.201273 53.603348 100.093080 185.980916
2025-06-01 2.618648 6.107222 13.056438 27.262291 54.595995 103.388426 194.661852
2025-06-08 2.434008 5.815541 12.687587 26.985632 54.935474 105.525532 201.366416